Threat for severe weather remains

Better late than never, right? Usually, but in the case of severe weather, never is the preferrable scenario.

When I posted yesterday, all the computer models (fancy word for very complicated weather math equations used to predict weather) were pointing toward a threat for severe weather to move across Eastern Carolina this morning with all rain ending by midafternoon. The computer models are having a very tough time with the current storm system, mostly with respect to the timing and not the intensity. Over the past 48 hours or so, the storm has and continues to move more slowly than the models indicate. They seem to have adjusted at this point and have really honed on when our worst weather will be, so I am much more confident in the forecast this morning than over the past 2 days. As of this posting at 8:45 a.m. Thursday, a tornado watch is in effect for southeast GA and northern FL. This is the part of the storm that will pass through the Pee Dee and Grand Strand this afternoon and early tonight, so it is possible we will be under a tornado watch before day's end.

Once that threat ends tonight, that's where the forecast could get a little tricky once again. Great. Again, the computer models have had a tough week keeping track of this storm system. I mentioned timing as the main culprit, but they have also struggled with temperatures which led to unexpected snow across east Texas, Lousiana and Mississippi overnight. The models have done a great job this week with intensity of the precipitation so far and they are showing only very light precip for us overnight tonight as the cold air arrives. That's what intrigues me just a bit. Now, don't jump to conclusions--I don't think the ground will be covered when you wake up Friday morning, but if the temperatures do get colder than the models are indicating across Eastern Carolina tonight, we could see a brief period of snow flurries as the center of the low pressure moves through late tonight. I don't really expect flurries tonight, but it would not be completely unheard with a system this strong, especially with its history of surprises this week back in Texas and Louisiana.

Log In | Register as a new member