Thoughts About Bertha
We have been watching the strong tropical wave that rolled off of Africa for the past two days. Today it became the second tropical storm of the season. Conditions in the far eastern tropical Atlantic are favorable for tropical storm development. The water temperature is between 26 and 28 degrees C (the threshold for storm formation is 26 degrees C), wind shear is low, the tropical wave is the strongest so far this season, and Sahara dust and dry air is absent. With good conditions, Bertha should continue to organize today and tonight. Tomorrow and Saturday, Bertha will move into an area with slightly cooler sea surface temperatures. This may stop development, and may actually weaken the storm. If Bertha continues on the forecast NNW track, it will be back out over warmer water by Sunday, and may intensify.By early next week, Bertha will start to interact with a trough of low pressure and could recurve northward and stay well east of Bermuda. Increasing wind shear with this trough could also weaken the storm. If Bertha is weaker than expected early next week, it is possible that is sneaks south of the trough, and gets closer to Bermuda. It is unlikely that this storm will affect the United States.
Bertha has already set a record for the farthest east a storm has formed so early in the season. Bertha formed at 25 degrees West Longitude. This is also the farthest east a storm has ever formed in the Month of July.
There is a correlation to early season Cape Verde storms, and how busy the rest of the season is. Years that have a storm form south of 22N and east of 77W in June or July have had at least average hurricane seasons, and often times above average.
Posted by on 07/03 at 02:28 PM
