That 90 day long range forecast..how does that work Chris ? What is involved in getting such a projected forcast and how reliable is it ?

I do trust you guys..but I also like ragging on weather people…one of my many downfalls..

However I am very serious in my questions here..

There actually is some skill to a 90 day forecast.  This doesn’t mean I can tell you it will rain March 21.

Instead, we look for the existence (and non-existence) of a handful of global scale features we know affect the weather in a variety of ways.  The most popular example is El Nino.

El Nino is a large scale feature that doesn’t just pop up or go away overnight, and does have a documented effect on our weather as well as the weather all around the northern hemisphere.

When the waters off the equatorial Pacific Ocean of South America are warmer than normal (El Nino), we almost always have wetter weather than normal while places like India have severe drought.

On the other hand, when those same waters are cooler than normal (La Nina), it’s the southeastern US’s turn to have severe drought.  Meanwhile, places like the Pacific Northwest and India, have too much rain.

Of course, El Nino and La Nina are not the only large scale features on Earth, so the seasonal forecast is not quite as simple as just picking El Nino vs. La Nina.  However, as a quick and dirty first guess, that is a great place to start.

Currently, we are in a strong La Nina state which weighs heavily in the 90 day outlook and is why I can say with some confidence that we will stay dry a while longer. 

I hope I’m wrong!

Chris

Thank You Chris..

I figured there would have to be some slow changing variables in there somewhere that had enough stability to get an accurate idea of what the conditions would be over a long period of time.

I know what you guys do is far from easy..in my mind it is like a big chess board..you have to consider where each piece on the board is at the time..to determine your next move or even the outcome of the overall game..

but since you dont actually have control of all of the moving pieces..you have to make an educated guess at what will play out on the board..Sometimes it make be spot on while other times it may be a little off..

I have absolutely no idea how many storm systems are out there at one time or even what effect they may have on the overall weather in one certain location..but it makes sense for me to think that you sit down in the weather lab and look at a monitor and see something similar to what air traffic controllers see..alot of activity in a confined space with all kinds of possiblities as to what could happen..

I appreciate you taking the time to answer..and I really appreciate what you guys and gals do..

I’m prolly still gonna rag on you tho..