How much faith do you put into this kind of stuff Chris? Last year the guy that makes prediction at the University of Colorado, (I think) had egg all over his face about 2007 being a bad year. He had to keep adjusting his prediction downward the whole season. Predicting weather from day to day is difficult enough, but a 6 month prediction seem kind of silly to me.

Dave, thanks for the question.  I think these guys do an excellent job catching in their seasonal outlooks.  I think it’s all about how you look at their accuracy.  Dr. Gray and NOAA both predicted more active than normal seasons last year and that’s exactly what we saw with a total of 15 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes.  The average is about 10. 
True, Dr Gray’s crew did overpredict last year, but only by a few storms, which is actually as good as you could ever ask for with that type of forecast. n his forecast, as well as the forecast issued yesterday by NOAA, scientists look at current and expected future global patterns to see if the environment is overall favorable or unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
The fly in the ointment with this type of forecast is those day to day patterns we can’t predict 3 months ahead of time such as jet stream location, localized wind shear patterns, cold fronts, etc.  For those types of short term variable factors, we assume those to be the same on average from year to year, so they are not factored into the forecast.  Of course, the reality is they do affect the number of storms that form and this is how large errors in the number of storms can occur. 
Even so, I think if you look back and think big picture, these forecasters do a great job of giving a public an overall idea of what to expect each season which is what their purpose is.

Correction to post above:

Dave, thanks for the question.  I think these guys do an excellent job in their seasonal outlooks.  I think it’s all about how you look at their accuracy.  Dr. Gray and NOAA both predicted more active than normal seasons last year and that’s exactly what we saw with a total of 15 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes.  The average is about 10. 
True, Dr Gray’s crew did overpredict last year, but only by a few storms, which is actually as good as you could ever ask for with that type of forecast. In his forecast, as well as the forecast issued yesterday by NOAA, scientists look at current and expected future global patterns such as ocean temperatures, El Nino vs. La Nina, etc. to see if the environment is overall favorable or unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
The fly in the ointment with this type of forecast is those day to day patterns we can’t predict 3 months ahead of time such as jet stream location, localized wind shear patterns, cold fronts, etc.  For those types of short term factors, we assume those to be the same on average from year to year, so they are not factored into the forecast.  Of course, the reality is they do affect the actual number of storms that form and this is how large errors in the number of storms can occur. 
Even so, I think if you look back and think big picture, these forecasters do a great job of giving a public an overall idea of what to expect each season which is what their purpose is.

That’s why they pay you the big buck Chris. Certainly you are better able to understand and interpret all this weather and climate stuff than I am. I have gotten right good at reading a digital thermometer though. That is why I posed the question. If I remember correctly there were a lot of storms last year, but fortunately, most of them had little or no affect on America. A storm is a storm and they all count. Right?

Let’s hope the prediction for an average to active season is way high. I remember Hurricane Hugo vividly and would rather not got through that again even though we were luck compared to a lot of folks.

Keep up the good weather reporting.

Thanks for the kind words Dave!  You are very good at reading your digital thermometer.  Never underestimate the importance the information you send us everyday.
Funny, you should mention Hugo.  Here’s exactly why I encourage folks to not put too much emphasis on these long range hurricane predictions:  Hugo happened during a nearly average hurricane season, yet there was nothing average about Hugo—especially to those in the Low Country!
Remember Hurricane Andrew?  It was the first of only 6 named storms that season and it didn’t hit until late August—as a Cat. 5! 
This is why we should ALWAYS be prepared—regardless of how many storms are expected in a given year.

That brings to mind something that happened the day Hugo came to town. I stopped by my office that afternoon and ran into an associate of mine. I told him I was going home to batten down the hatches before the storm arrived. His take on that was, by the time the storm gets here there won’t be anything to it. The next time I saw him I said, sure am glad there wasn’t anything to it. 10 or so days later I had power again but I was fortunate. I only had a mess to clean up and live without power. Many people in Florence were no where near that lucky.

I refuse to take anything for granted when it comes to weather.