Hanna weakens, but is still a threat

11PM Update: Hanna has continued to struggle against the strong wind shear this evening, but spent the past few hours drifting east. The good news is that the storm continues to weaken, and as long as it is near Hispaniola and the wind shear stays strong, it will not strengthen. There is also a bunch of dry air that has moved into the Bahamas, and could get sucked into the storm. This is another feature that points toward weakening. The bad news is the drift to the east will give Hanna a farther east start to it’s NW track that should start early tomorrow. The computer model forecasts this evening have shifted to the east as well, and range from Georgia to North Carolina, with the Grand Strand being right in the middle. I still believe that we will not really know where it is going until it starts it’s NW movement.

The forecast is for the wind shear to relax tomorrow and for a ridge of high pressure to start to build in from the east. The lower wind shear will give Hanna the chance to strengthen tomorrow, it may even become a hurricane again. The high building in will start to nudge the storm to the northwest. Once it starts to move NW, it will continue and will accelerate.

Since the storm moved a little to the south and east today, it is farther away from us than if it hadn’t. This could mean it will take a little longer to get here (again, it all depends on when it starts moving NW). This longer track could mean that we see no impacts from the storm at all on Thursday. Winds will pick up early Friday morning with the first rain after sunrise. The worst of the storm will be Friday afternoon and evening, and it will be moving away after midnight Friday night. I still think the storm will be gone Saturday, but it will likely still be windy.

Even with the slower storm, the critical high tide along the Grand Strand will be the Noon Friday high tide. Worst case scenario still calls for a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane on Friday. This means heavy rain of 4-8 inches and the threat for tornadoes. Winds could be stronger in the Pee Dee than along the coast if the storm makes landfall south of Georgetown, however there will be a risk for coastal flooding and a storm surge along the Grand Strand.



Elsewhere in the tropics:

Gustav has pretty much stalled over land. It will no longer be a wind threat, but will dump a lot of rain across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas.

Ike already looks like a hurricane on satellite and could become a major hurricane in the next few days. The ridge of high pressure that is one of the factors in the movement of Hanna is building westward, and should be in place over the East Coast before Ike gets here. That will keep Ike on a westward track, and keep it to our south.



Josephine is way out there and may stay out to sea. It is still a long way off, so I have not spent much time looking at this one.

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