Another Shot of Rain (Maybe Snow?)
First and foremost, here is my forecast for late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening when the rain ends as a bit of snow. Kershaw County, Chesterfield County, northern Marlboro County and Scotland County will see a period of snow that will leave 1/2 to 2 inches of accumulation. South of this area to I-95 there will be some snow as well, and some spots may see a dusting to 1/2 an inch. South of I-95 a few flurries late at night will do nothing more that a dusting.
We have two systems approaching us:
1) a storm system from the Gulf of Mexico with plenty of moisture. At the very least, we are going to get another soaking rain, with many areas getting between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Highest rain totals will be along the coast. It is going to be a cold, all day rain with highs only in the 40s.
2) A strong, arctic cold front that will move through late in the day and at night. Temperatures will drop quickly with this front, and will fall into the 20s Saturday night, so even without any snow, the wet ground from all of the rain during the day will freeze up, and roads could become slick.
The Gulf storm will arrive first, with rain developing in the morning. This storm will move away in the evening, with the precipitation ending from west to east from 7pm to 11pm. The cold front will move into western parts of our area (Chesterfield County) after 3pm. Rain will start to mix with, and then turn to snow after the front moves through. The front will hit I-95 by 7pm, and will cross the coast around 1am. As the front moves into Chesterfield County, there will still be moisture around, but by the time it reaches the coast, most of the precip will be gone. The best chance for snow, and the highest accumulations will be farther to the west.
There are two givens with tomorrow's weather. There will be plenty of moisture, and the air behind the cold front is plenty cold enough for snow. The only question that remains is the timing of the two systems. If the cold front is quicker by only an hour or two, we will see more snow, and farther to the east. A quicker Gulf storm, or slower front will mean just rain, with the precip ending before it gets cold enough. This is a tough forecast, but I do think that someone in the Southeast is going to get a BIG snowstorm. One of the computers has been predicting 6 inches of snow from Birmingham to Atlanta for a couple days now.
Check this out.... it is the snowfall forecast from the NAM computer model. The green area is 4-6 inches of snow from Columbia to Chesterfield County. The yellow 3-4 inch area dips into Darlington County, and this has 3 inches of snow for Florence. It even prints out an inch of snow all the way to the coast! This is by far the snowiest of the computer models, and no other model that I have seen forecasts more than 2 inches in our area.... some of them keep it all rain. The bottom line, there is potential for this system to bring alot of snow, but the likely outcome will have most of the moisture gone before the cold arrives.
Posted by
on 01/18 at 08:11 PM
