And now a February tornado outbreak…

Almost exactly a month ago, I wrote a blog about the tornado outbreak that occurred on January 7 in the Midwest, primarily in Missouri. Today, I have been looking at pictures of damage from an outbreak affecting Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. I know that many people are thinking that this must be due to global warming, or that something crazy must be going on with the weather. However, February outbreaks are not that unusual. What makes this unusual is the number of people that were killed yesterday.

Estimated totals from the January 7 outbreak according to the Storm Prediction Center include 75 tornadoes and 4 deaths. Similarly, this outbreak included 67 tornadoes, but what makes a marked difference is the number of people killed. At last report, I saw that 52 people died due to the storms yesterday. 13 in Arkansas, 7 in Kentucky, 4 in Alabama, and 28 in Tennessee. This makes yesterday's outbreak the deadliest since May 3, 1999 when 46 people were killed in Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas due to 70 tornadoes.

Here is the link to the storm reports from yesterday, but not all fatalities are included in the reports:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080205_rpts.html

Some of the reasons that this outbreak was particularly deadly was the locations that it hit. Tornadoes hit heavily populated areas, including Memphis. 51 students at Union University in Jackson, TN were taken to the hospital following the storm, which damaged nearly every building on campus. Classes are cancelled for at least the next week and some of the dormitory buildings have outer walls torn off. For more information about the damage at the college and some pictures, visit http://www.jacksonsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080206/NEWS01/802060330/1002. Thankfully, no deaths were reported at this campus. Additionally, in Memphis the roof was torn off a Sears store in a shopping mall and a roof was ripped off an airplane hangar at the airport.

Not only did these storms hit populated regions, they were moving quickly. General movement was approximately 60 mph. These tornadoes were especially dangerous due to the amount of time that they were on the ground. Due to the upper level support of these storms, the damage tracks were long and these tornadoes were especially dangerous due to the amount of time that they were on the ground.

The only way I can imagine the outcome being worse would be if this had happened at night when people were sleeping. For this reason, it is so important to have a NOAA weather radio that will wake you up if severe weather threatens.

The good news, if there is any- is that the storm system has weakened significantly. At this time, there are not even any watch boxes out for the Southeast US and it looks like if we see any strong winds, likelihood is going to be further south than our region. We still have a shot for rain, but our severe potential is not looking hazardous this evening.

Posted by on 02/06 at 04:16 PM

Tornadoes are my least favorite when it comes to weather..

I saw some of these in real life during our stay in New Mexico..back in the 60’s..we were probably 8 to 10 miles away..but the sounds and the flying debris is both amazing and frightening all at the same time..

Entire houses disappear..anything in it’s path was usually history back then..and left you wondering what it must feel like knowing that within a few seconds..you lost everything you worked your entire life for..

I’m glad that system weakened..we could use the rain..even a bit of wind is welcome..

I have a question for you Mel…

I could have emailed you but it aint like it is personal or anything..so I will ask it here..

I have the Forestry Service coming to blade a road around 87 acres for me with a bulldozer..and section the woods off in about 4 acre grids..so that I can burn it off..

I need the relative humidity to be somewhere around 35 to 40 percent...I know that I can check on the weather page of yours and get it for that particular day..

My question is....is there any way to get..like an extended projection of it..say over a 3 to 5 day period? If so..where could I find such a thing ?

Thanks Mel...I appreciate your help smile

Posted by  on  02/06  at  07:20 PM

Relative humidity is a little tough.

For 48 hours away, I can send you to the weather service’s page.  Here’s a link to that. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=ilm&FcstType=graphical&site=ILM↦.x=80↦.y=117

For further out, it gets a little more difficult.  The computer models I use to make my forecasts will give me a value for temperature and dewpoint, but not relative humidity.  And it’s not a direct relationship between the two for the relative humidity value, it’s based on an equation.

Here’s what I can do- I can give you a link to a model with a temperature and dewpoint forecast and also give you a link to calculate relative humidity from those values.

For the forecast part:  Go to

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/

You will probably want to use the GFS because it goes out further than the ETA, so click on US beside the GFS.  From there, scroll down the left of your screen until you get to surface temperature (sfc T) and dewpoint (0-30 mb Td).  The numbers below these values are how many hours the forecast is for. 

If you write down number values (you will have to estimate with the color table at the bottom) then you can plug them into this table.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/rh.shtml

Use today’s barometric pressure, it won’t affect the outcome that much.

Hope this helps?!

Posted by  on  02/07  at  11:25 AM

I never knew learning could be so fun..smile

Thank You Mel...you have no idea how much I appreciate this...yes this is a huge help to me..

Wow..I cant walk away until I tell you that I am definitely impressed with both your knowledge and your kindness..

You’re alright Kiddo! wink

Have A Great Day!

Posted by  on  02/07  at  01:21 PM

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Posted by ovcbxlvs  on  05/01  at  05:17 PM

January 1999 bore swarms of tornadoes in the same area, though not as many deaths, probably because those occurred during the daytime. I think this was more along the LaNina cycle.

Posted by software development  on  05/27  at  10:42 AM

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