A pretty good soaking by Thursday, but wintry?  Doubt it…

This being my first winter in South Carolina, it's a little strange for it to be the middle of January and not even have seen a snow flurry. Even in Texas, we had several events each winter that allowed for live shots out in the freezing rain, snow, and sleet. And trapsing to class in feet of snow was common in Northwest Indiana, where lake effect snow occurred each winter. It seems that many people are getting anxious for a taste of winter around here too, as I have had several emails from viewers asking if there is the possiblity that we could see something other than rain with the storm system that is approaching by Thursday. Right now, I seriously doubt it. Here are a couple responses I have sent to News 13 Viewers so far explaining my reasoning.

Response #1 to a viewer who is a self-admitted weather tracker:

I definitely think we will be seeing some precipitation on Wednesday night into Thursday, but right now I don’t really think we will have a problem with any of it being frozen. Something I typically check is the 500 mb to 1000 mb thickness levels. Generally speaking the 5400 m line is what you look at to determine whether there is a likelihood of frozen precipitation. The last couple runs of the GFS that I have been looking at have the 540 line dipping as far south as West Texas by late Thursday night, but it is all the way up to Maryland along the east coast. Estimated surface temperatures are still above freezing throughout Thursday as well, as near as I can tell it’s the upstate before surface temperatures are below 32. Even if temperatures at the surface were colder, I don’t think there would be enough time for anything falling from this system to freeze before it makes it to the ground, especially since this storm system will contain a lot of Gulf Moisture and is coming from a region of warmer air. Even if we see freezing temperatures near the surface, I think ground temperatures are too warm due to the 70s that we saw throughout the past week for anything to freeze on the surfaces.

By the 18th-20th, I think it’s likely that we will see a cooler air mass, but I don’t think our precip chances are looking that great. The run of the GFS I am looking at brings a pretty strong high pressure over the Southeast.

Melissa


And response #2 to a question regarding whether we may see snow:

Right now, it doesn't look like it is going to be cold enough here to worry about anything frozen. Model outputs are keeping our lowest temperatures in the Pee Dee in the middle 30s and in the upper 30s along the Grand Strand. Also, it doesn't look like there will be a thick enough region of freezing temperatures above us, with temperatures above freezing until at least 10,000 feet. Anything that did fall as frozen would have time to melt before it reaches the ground. I just read the forecast discussion from Columbia and it looks like their confidence is very low. They are forecasting that if anything frozen falls it will be early in the event before everything switches over to rain. Since this storm system will be originating from the Gulf of Mexico, it will have a lot of warm air associated with it and rain should be the biggest factor for us. Soil temperatures should still be fairly warm after seeing 70 degree days last week so I don't think icing will be a big issue either, while we may see some form on cars and elevated objects.

Hope this helps.
Melissa

Response #3, when a viewer pointed out that there were slight chances late Thursday in portions of Georgia, including Atlanta:

As that low pressure system moves up the coast, portions of Georgia and the Upstate will be on the backside of it (on the west of it). This means that they will have northerly winds as the low moves up the coast, bringing in slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of wrap-around precipitation, which could possibly be snow. We should stay on the front of the low, keeping our winds out of the south and any remaining precipitation by late Thursday as rain.

So in general, snow is not looking likely for the region Thursday. Right now, it is looking like a cold rain event. And as always two heads are better than one- so if you stil have questions, take a look at Chris Still's blog as well!

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