6pm tropical update
Hanna is on the move and getting better organized. This is the move to the northwest that we have been waiting for, and now we can better forecast the storm.Since Hanna started the move to the NW pretty far east, the track the storm takes will be farther east we expected yesterday. I am no longer concerned with the storm hitting Florida, and it probably won’t hit Georgia either. There is now a chance that the storm could make landfall in North Carolina, or even stay out to sea.
Since the storm is now moving we can get a better estimate of when it will affect our area. Hanna did not get moving until this afternoon, so it will be coming in a little later than expected yesterday. However, once the storm did start moving, it didn’t slowly get going… it jumped to attention. The timing of the storm is now falling into line:
Thursday: Another sunny, nice day with light wind.
Friday: Clouds arrive early. Winds increase in the morning. Rain arrives after lunch along the coast, closer to late afternoon inland.
Friday night: Heavy rain and wind. The worst of the storm looks to be between 9pm Friday and 3am Saturday. The critical high tide now switches to the 12:24 am high tide….
Saturday, Wind and rain in the morning, clearing and calming down in the afternoon.
Hurricane hunters have tracked the path this afternoon, and the storm is actually moving northeast. Central pressure dropped earlier this afternoon, but has leveled off. Thunderstorms are also starting to decrease this evening. Even though the storm is getting better organized, it is going to be a slow go to get Hanna to strengthen.
The current NHC track has the storm approaching the Grand Strand Friday night, making landfall near Little River close to midnight. Our entire area is still in the cone of uncertainty, but consider what different tracks mean to different areas.
A track farther west with a landfall toward Charleston will bring a storm surge to the Grand Strand. It will bring strong winds to much of our area with a risk for tornadoes.
A track to the east of Little River will lessen the storm surge and keep the strongest winds right along the Grand Strand. The tornado threat will move into North Carolina.
Both of these scenarios will bring rain of 4-8 inches to our area. This is enough to cause minor flooding and street flooding, but not the devastating inland flooding that sometimes accompanies tropical systems.
One more note…. I think the NHC forecast is a worst case scenario… I don’t think Hanna will be any worse than a 80mph cat1 hurricane. There is a chance that it even remains a tropical storm.
Ike is now a hurricane. It should stay south of us, but some of the computer models curve it up the East Coast, but out to sea on Tuesday. I don’t believe this and think it will hit Florida or move into the Gulf of Mexico.
Josephine is a tropical storm and will likely not affect land.
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on 09/03 at 04:57 PM
