3pm Hanna Update

Hanna remains a disorganized, but strong tropical storm. We are still expecting landfall tomorrow night, and since the storm is getting closer, we can forecast with more confidence.

Hurricane hunters in the storm right now are finding a storm with thunderstorms well away from the center. Also, the central pressure of the storm is the same as it was yesterday. The dry air that we were watching yesterday has wrapped all the way around the storm, and is definitely holding it back. There is still fairly strong wind shear as well. All of these are good news, and point toward a storm that will not strengthen much if at all. Since Hanna is still 36 hours away and will be moving over warm water, we will continue to proceed with caution with regard to the forecast strength of the storm. I can see it weakening before hitting the Carolinas, and I can also see it strengthening, but neither of these options will be drastic. Hanna will hit our area as a storm with peak winds somewhere between 60-80 mph.

Since Hanna is unorganized and is not developing thunderstorms and strong winds near the center, it is spreading out. This is important, because even if the storm does not hit us directly, we will likely get several hours of tropical storm force winds.

The current forecast for Hanna has the track staying just east of the Grand Strand, and making landfall at Cape Fear. This will keep most of the storm surge and the greatest threat for tornadoes in North Carolina. We will still have strong winds and heavy rain. The strongest winds will be confined to within 15 miles of the coast where 50-80 mph winds will be possible. From 15 miles inland to I-95 winds will decrease, but we will still see tropical storm force winds of 40-60 mph. Even west of I-95, winds up to 50 mph will be possible. 4-8 inches of rain is possible with this storm as well.

Timeline:

Rain arriving after lunch tomorrow along the coast, late afternoon inland. Winds will steadily pick up all day long. The worst part of the storm will be from 9pm Friday to 3am Saturday. The center of the storm will be just offshore around the time of high tide (about 12:30am), so although the worst storm surge will be in North Carolina, there will likely still be some coastal flooding. The storm will quickly subside Saturday morning with the rain ending early, and winds diminishing throughout the day.




Check out the latest updates and other important hurricane information on the hurricane center on scnow.com:

http://www.scnow.com/scp/weather/hurricane_preparedness/

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