11pm Tropical Update

Tomorrow at this time we will be in the strongest part of Hanna. Tonight we are watching a storm that looks like it is trying to get it’s act together. Hurricane hunters are on their way back to the storm, but will not be close to it until after midnight. Their last visit found a disorganized storm with a low level center that was displaced from it’s mid level center. This kept the storm from getting organized today, but this evening there has been a flare-up of thunderstorms near the center of the storm, so Hanna may have fixed it’s flaw. We will not know until the plane gets there.

Even if Hanna is getting better organized, I don’t expect a fast strengthening. There is still a lot of dry air around and within the storm, and it is still fighting some wind shear. I still believe that Hanna will hit us as either a strong tropical storm, or a weak hurricane with winds anywhere between 60-80 mph. This is still going to be a storm to be prepared for, especially right along the coast.

The latest NHC forecast for Hanna is a touch farther to the west, with landfall between Little River and Cape Fear after midnight tomorrow. This will take the center of the storm just east of the Grand Strand around the 12:30 am high tide tomorrow night. This will enhance the threat for coastal flooding and damage along the beaches.

Hanna has had a large wind field today, but if the storm gets organized and consolidadtes around a center, the wind field will get stronger. That could mean less wind inland, but more along the coast. The strongest winds will be within 15 miles of the coast, where the 55-75 mph winds can occur. Beyond 15 miles of the coast, winds will be in the 45-65 mph range.

The dry air that has wrapped around the storm has really killed off a lot of the thunderstorms. While 4-8 inches of rain may still occur in a few areas, I think most rain amounts will be lower, more like 2-4 inches, and west of I-95 will get less than an inch.

Finally, the track of the storm is critical, and a 10 mile jog back to the west will bring a much higher storm surge and a longer period of high winds to the Grand Strand.

Timeline:

Rain arriving after lunch tomorrow along the coast, late afternoon inland. Winds will steadily pick up all day long. The worst part of the storm will be from 9pm Friday to 3am Saturday. The center of the storm will be just offshore around the time of high tide (about 12:30am), so although the worst storm surge will be in North Carolina, there will likely still be some coastal flooding. The storm will quickly subside Saturday morning with the rain ending early, and winds diminishing throughout the day.



Hurricane Ike is a cat 4 hurricane and should continue to move in a general westerly direction. Ike will not impact the US until Tuesday, so there is still uncertainty in the forecast. I think Ike will continue west and threaten Florida or even Cuba. There are some computer models that curve Ike northward toward North Carolina or out to sea. This is due to a strong cold front, and if it happens, I think it will be an abrupt enough of a turn to the northeast that Ike will not impact South Carolina. We will continue to watch Ike.



Josephine is a tropical storm and will likely not affect land.

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