11pm Tropical Update

Not much change from the 5pm update. Hanna is still holding on in the face of some pretty strong wind shear. It is amazing that Hanna was able to strengthen into a hurricane today with the strong wind shear. This wind shear will likely continue tonight and tomorrow, so further strengthening is unlikely. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hanna were to weaken some.

Hanna continues very slow and eratic movement. This is what is going to make this a tough forecast. We really will not have a good handle on where Hanna will end up, and how strong the storm will be until it starts moving. This will not happen until Wednesday. Wind shear will also be fairly low on Wednesday, so as the storm starts to move to the northwest, it will have a chance to strengthen. The NHC forecast has Hanna making landfall in South Carolina on Friday as a strong category 2 hurricane. The 11pm forecast from the NHC actually has Hanna slightly stronger and farther east than the previous advisory, but the computer models are not shifting eastward, and the storm still has a slow westward drift to it…. So I am not sold yet.

We are already seeing waves from Hanna at Grand Strand beaches, and the risk for rip currents was high today, and will stay high all week. The current track and timing will have winds picking up on Thursday, with clouds arriving late in the day, and bands of rain moving in at night. Friday looks to be a stormy day with heavy rain, strong winds, the risk for tornadoes, and rough surf and higher than normal tides along the Grand Strand. Highs tides at Springmaid Pier are 11:34pm Thursday, 12:19pm Friday, and 12:24am Saturday. The current forecast of a fast moving hurricane means that the Friday Noon high tide will be the critical one, but any change in the storm’s movement can bring it here sooner, or slow it down. The current forecast is for Hanna to be moving away Friday night, and gone by Saturday, with diminishing wind. Since Hanna will be a relatively fast moving storm, we will probably not see huge rainfall amounts, but 4-8 inches of rain seems possible, which is more than enough to cause flooding.

If the NHC forecast is correct, and landfall is 100 miles away from Myrtle Beach, we could still see significant damage along the beaches. Some past hurricanes that have hit south of Charleston have sent 6 foot storm surges to the Grand Strand. The current track of the storm making landfall south of Charleston, then moving northward will bring strong winds inland. Winds may be stronger in the Pee Dee than along the Grand Strand if Hanna takes this track.

The computer models continue to show landfall in Florida, Georgia or South Carolina south of Charleston.

The forecast for Hanna will likely change due to the slow and erratic movement today and tomorrow. Once the storm starts it’s trek to the northwest and picks up some speed there will be more confidence as to where the storm is going, and how strong it will be.




Tropical Storm Ike looks well organized in the mid Atlantic. This storm should become a hurricane in the next few days. A large area of high pressure is building from the Atlantic westward. This is one of the features that is steering Hanna northwestward at the end of the week. The forecast is for this high to get stronger. If this is the case, any hurricane that forms will stay on a westward track and not curve up the East Coast. This is still a week away, and the forecast can change.




Gustov is now a tropical storm, and will now be a rain maker in East Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana. There will likely be flooding in that area. There are also several other areas of concern in the Atlantic, so it should keep us busy for the next few weeks. The tropical wave emerging off of Africa tonight already looks like a tropical depression, and that will likely become the next one named.

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